آمادگی آینده بنگاه: ارائه مفهوم و شاخص ترکیبی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر/ پژوهشکده مطالعات فناوری

2 دانشیار دانشکده حسابداری و مدیریت دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

3 دانشکده علوم و فنون دانشگاه تهران

4 عضو هیات علمی/ دانشگاه تهران

5 عضو هیات علمی/ مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور

چکیده

بنگاه‌های اقتصادی موتور رشد و توسعه در هر کشوری هستند و از اهمیت ویژه‌ای در برنامه‌ریزی‌ها و سیاست‌گذاری‌ها برخوردارند. مبنای تصمیم‌گیری در اغلب بنگاه‌های اقتصادی، دانش و آینده‌نگری مدیران و کارشناسان تصمیم‌ساز در آن بنگاه است که اغلب، تصمیم‌های خود را با نگاه به آینده اتخاذ می‌نمایند. دنیای سرشار از تغییرات فزاینده امروز، ضرورت توجه و تمرکز بیشتر بر آینده و شناسایی وقایع و تحولات آینده را افزون ساخته است و مدیران و تصمیم‌گیران هر واحد اقتصادی، می‌بایست با آگاهی نسبی نسبت به این تغییر و تحولات، آمادگی خود را برای مواجهه با آنها افزایش داده و از غافلگیری‌های راهبردی در کسب و کار خود پرهیز نمایند. در این پژوهش تلاش شده تا مفهوم جدیدی در حوزه آینده‌پژوهی یعنی مفهوم «آمادگی آینده بنگاه » در قالب یک شاخص ترکیبی معرفی شود تا بنگاه‌ها بتوانند با استفاده از آن، آمادگی خود را جهت مواجهه با آینده و تغییر و تحولات آن ارزیابی و ارتقا دهند. بدین منظور از روش توسعه شاخص ترکیبی استفاده شده و با مطالعه ادبیات، چارچوب اولیه شاخص ترکیبی تدوین شد. سپس با پیمایش بنگاه‌های بزرگ دانش‌بنیان، به جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از بنگاه‌ها پرداخته شد تا چارچوب اولیه شاخص ترکیبی، با استفاده از روش تحلیل عاملی، تجزیه و تحلیل گردد. در این پژوهش، شاخص ترکیبی آمادگی آینده بنگاه توسعه داده شد که شامل 17 متغیر و 120 پرسش است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Firm Future Readiness: Concept Presentation and Composite Index

نویسندگان [English]

  • amir Ghadiri 1
  • Seyed Habibolah Tabatabaeian 2
  • Mehdi Mohmmadi 3
  • Mohammad Mehdi Zolfagharzadeh 4
  • Amir Nazemi 5
1 Researcher of Research Institute for Technology Studies,Tehran
2 Allameh Tabatabaei University
3 University of Tehran
4 University of Tehran
5 Member of Tehran Research Institute for Science Policy of Iran
چکیده [English]

Companies are the motor of growth and development in all countries and they have special importance in all planning and policy making activities. Every decision in almost all companies is based on knowledge and future information of managers and experts inside the company who often makes their decisions based on looking to the future. Today, in an increasingly changing world, there are more necessary to focus on the future and identify future events and occurrences and managers and experts in a company should, having a good knowledge on these changes, increase their readiness for encountering to them and avoid from “strategic surprises”. In this research, tried to introduce a new concept in the field of futures studies i.e. “Company Future Readiness” in a composite indicator, so that companies using that can evaluate and promote their future readiness in encountering to future and its changes. For this, methodology of developing composite indicators was used and basic conceptual framework was developed based on literature review. Then by a survey on large knowledge based companies, data was gathered so that the basic framework was analyzed by using factor analysis method. By doing this research, a company future readiness composite indicator was developed which consists of 17 variables and 120 questions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Studies
  • Company
  • Company Future Readiness Composite Indicator
  • Factor analysis

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