The Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) industry is essential for aviation safety and efficiency, but it faces challenges due to technological advancements, sanctions, and market changes. This study aims to develop a model for enhancing innovation capacity in Iran, focusing on futures studies and open innovation concepts like co-evolution and co-selection. A qualitative approach with thematic analysis was used, and data was collected from semi-structured interviews with Iranian aviation experts and managers. The results show that co-evolution and co-selection drive the aviation industry’s lifecycle. In the early stage, MRO companies’ success depends on their co-evolution with other industry players like suppliers and research institutions. In the maturity phase, competition and independent strategies are more influential, though technological collaboration remains important. In the decline phase, companies' survival depends on effective co-selection management and strategic partnerships. The study presents three future scenarios for the MRO industry: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic. The optimistic scenario highlights investments in advanced technologies like AI, IoT, and predictive maintenance, alongside domestic and international collaborations. The realistic scenario focuses on balanced growth through domestic development and reduced foreign dependency. The pessimistic scenario suggests that technological limitations and sanctions may reduce the industry’s competitiveness. This research provides insights for guiding the industry’s growth through co-evolution and co-selection strategies.