Developing a Framework for Aligning Adaptive Foresight with Science, Technology and Innovation Evidence-Based Policy-Making

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Tarbiat Modares University

2 Amirkabir University of Technology

Abstract

A foresight activity can be assumed effective when its consequences are reflected in the policy-making process. This notion emphasizes the concept of foresight as a policy intelligence tool. No framework has yet been presented to show that foresight influences policy-making process. Therefore, the present study tries to provide a framework for aligning technology foresight with policy-making. This study mainly develops the proposed framework by integrating the concepts of evidence-based policy-making and adaptive foresight with the help of a mixed method. The "mixed method" approach used in this study has a sequential exploratory design characterized by the collection and analysis of qualitative data followed by the collection and analysis of quantitative data. First, a conceptual framework is developed in the qualitative part of the study by meta-synthesis and constant comparative method of analysis (CCM); second, in the quantitative part, the quantitative tests are done to evaluate the factors, dimensions, and components of the developed theoretical framework. To test the proposed model, questionnaires are distributed as the data collection tool among a sample of 15 experts active in the field of foresight and policy-making. The results confirm the hypotheses of the study and the validity of the proposed framework.

Keywords


Unido,   "Unido technology   foresight manual: Organization and   methods"     Vienna, p.100, 2005.
[1]
DaCosta,   O. Warnke, P. Cagnin, C. Scapolo, F. "The impact of   foresight on   policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning     process",   Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20,   pp.369–387, 2008.
[2]
Havas,   A, Schartinger, D. and Weber, M. “The impact of foresight on innovation     policy-making: recent experiences and future perspective"   Research Evaluation, 2, pp. 91–104, 2010.
[3]
Li,   S-S., Kang, M-H., Lee, L-C. “Developing the   evaluation framework of   technology foresight program:  lesson learned from European countries,     Science &Technology Policy Research and Information Center”   National   Applied Research Laboratories, 2009. Available from: http://smartech.gatech.edu/jspui/bitstream/1853/32392/2/33-777-1-PB.pdf
[4]
Popper,   R., Keenan, M., Medina, J. "Evaluating Foresight   – The Colombian   Case",   Foresight Brief , 119, pp.2-4, 2010.
[5]
Schartinger,     D., Wilhelmer, D., Holste, D., Kubeczko, K., "Learning Effects of   a Foresight   Exercise:  An Accompanying Social   Research   Study",   Emerald, 14(1), pp.41-55, 2012.
[6]
Gray,   J.A.M. "   Evidence-Based Health Care: How to Make Health Policy   and Management   Decisions" New York and London, Churchill   Livingstone, p.157,   1997.
[7]
Sanz-Menéndez,   L.   Cabello, C. "   Understanding Technology Foresight: The   relevance of its S&T policy   context" International Journal of   Technology Management, 21,   pp.661-679, 2001.
[8]
Marston,   G., Watts,   R.  "Tampering with the evidence: A critical   appraisal of evidence-based   policy-making" The Drawing Board: An   Australian Review   of Public Affairs, 3, pp.143-163, 2003.
[9]
Creswell,   J. W. ,   Plano-Clark, V. L. , Gutman, M. L. , Hanson, W. E.   "Advanced mixed methods research design," Handbook   of mixed methods in social   & behavioral research Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage,   pp. 209-240, 2003.
[10]
Zimmer,   L. "Qualitative   meta-synthesis: a question of dialoguing with   texts, Journal of Advanced   Nursing", 53, pp.311–318, 2006.
[11]
Noblit,   G.W. , Hare, R.D.  "Meta –Ethnography: Synthesizing qualitative   studies", Newbury   Park, CA: Stage, 1988.
[12]
Abasi,   Sh. Soltani, D. Mohammad, K. Vahedian, A. Abdollahi, A. ”Presenting a process   framework for forward-thinking based on meta-combination method”, 3 (11) ,   PP. 45-74 , 2008.
[13]
Sohrabi,   B. Azami, A. Yazdani, H. ” Pathology Research conducted in the field of   Islamic management of the Barometer”, volume (6) , pp. 9-24, 2011.
[14]
BOEIJE,   H. "A Purposeful Approach to the Constant Comparative   Method in   the Analysis of Qualitative Interviews" Quality & Quantity, 36, pp.   391–409,   2002.
[15]
Martin,   B."  Foresight in science and technology,   technology   analysis& strategic management" 7, pp.139-168.1995.
[16]
Voros,   J. “A generic foresight process framework. Foresight" 5, pp. 10-21, 2003.
[17]
Saritas,   O. Taymaz, E. Tumer, T. "Vision 2023:  Turkey’s national   technology" 2006.
[18]
Popper,   R.  "How are foresight   methods selected " Foresight ,10   , pp.   62-89, 2008.
[19]
Miles,   I." Appraisal   of alternative methods and procedure for producing   regional foresight:   Mobilizing the regional foresight potential for an   enlarged European Union"  2002,   Available from: ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/17-appraisal.pdf
[20]
Horton,   A. "   Forefront: A simple guide to successful foresight"   Foresight, 1, pp. 5-9, 1999.
[21]
Reger,   G. "Technology foresight in companies: From an indicatorto a network and     process perspective" Technology Analysis &Strategic     Management, 13, pp. 533-553, 2001.
[22]
Martin,   B. and   Johnston, R. "Technology Foresight – the potential for   wiring up the National   Innovation System, Technological Forecasting   and Social Change" 60, pp.   37–54, 1999.
[23]
S   Ashford, L. R   Smith, R. De Souza, R.M , F Fikree, F. , V Yinger,   N.  "Creating windows of opportunity for policy change:   incorporating   evidence into decentralized planning in Kenya"   Bulletin of the world Health   organization, 84, pp.1-4 , 2006.
[24]
Hornby,   P. Perera,   H.S.R.A "development framework for promoting   Evidence-based policy action:   drawing on experiences in SriLanka", Int J Health Plann Mgmt, 17, pp. 165–183, 2002.
[25]
Edwards,   M. "Social Science   Research and Public Policy: Narrowing the   Divide, Foresight program: A   contextualize description and   analysis" Economic Research Center Middle East   Technical   University, 2005, Available from:http://www.erc.metu.edu.tr/menu/series06/0601.pdf
[26]
Young,E.   Quinn, L. "Writing Effective   Public Policy Papers: A Guide to   Policy Advisers in Central and Eastern   Europe" Budapest:     LGI, 2002.
[27]
O’Dwyer,   L.A "Critical review of   evidence-based policy making, AHURI Final   Report , The Australian Housing and   Urban Research Institute,    2004.
 
[28]