Typology of socio-technical transition pathways by Content meta-analysis - comparison new transition pathways with evidences

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student in Science & Technology Policy making, faculty of management, university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate professor, faculty of management, university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, fsaghafi@ut.ac.ir

3 Professor, Departmnet of Information Technology Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

TheTransition theory is mainly used to move from a dominant technology to a new and innovative technology. The Studies of the typology of transition pathways have shown that the transition to new technologies includes four main pathways. But in some studies, it has been emphasized to review this matter and the possibility of other pathways. Therefore, the aim of the study is to describe the typology of transition pathways by review the literature and identify possible pathways. The study method was a systematic literature review with content meta-analysis approach. The statistical population is papers on the typology of transition pathways that were published during 2010-2022. The transition pathways among the selected papers were compared in terms of 24 characteristics, which were also adapted from the systematic literature review. Finally, in terms of these characteristics and especially the three main characteristics (perspective pressure, maturity and regime resistance), 12 new transition pathways were identified. The identified pathways include 5 main pathways (reproduction, transformation, technological substitusion, reconfiguration and de-alignment and re-alignment), each of which was categorized into two gradual and pure pathways, as well as two hybrid pathways, “de-alignment and re-alignment and technological substitusion”, which It happens sequentially or simultaneously, and the pathway of “gradual reconfiguration and transformation simultaneously”.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Arapostathis, S., Carlsson-Hyslop, A., Pearson, P. JG., Thornton, J., Gradillas, M., Laczay, S. & Wallis, S. (2013). Governing transitions: Cases and insights from two periods in the history of the UK gas industry. Energy Policy 52 (2013) 25–44.
Barton,J., Davies,L., Dooley,B., J.Foxon,T., Galloway, S., & et al., (2018). Transition pathways for a UK low-carbon electricity system: Comparing scenarios and technology implications. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Volume 82, Part 3, February 2018, Pages 2779-2790
Berkhout, F., Smith, A., & Stirling, A. (2004). Socio-technological regimes and transition contexts. System innovation and the transition to sustainability: theory, evidence and policy. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 44(106), 48-75.
Damman, S., Sandberg, E., Rosenberg, E., Pisciella, P., Graabak, I. (2021). A hybrid perspective on energy transition pathways: Is hydrogen the key for Norway? Energy Research & Social Science 78 (2021) 102116.
Forbord,M., & Hansen, L.(2020). Enacting sustainable transitions: A case of biogas production and public transport in Trøndelag, Norway,  Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 254, 1 May 2020.

Foxon, T.J., Hammond, G.P. & Pearson, P.J.G. (2010). Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 77, Issue 8, October 2010, Pages 1203-1213.

Foxon, T. J., Burgess, J., Hammond, G. P., Hargreaves, T., Jones, C. I. and Pearson, P. J.(2010). Transition pathways to a low carbon economy: Linking governance patterns and assessment methodologies. 'IAIA10 Conference Proceedings' The Role of Impact Assessment in Transitioning to the Green Economy. 30th Annual Meeting of the International Association for Impact Assessment. 6-11 April 2010, International Conference Centre Geneva – Switzerland.
Galièguea, X.,Laude,A. (2017).Combining Geothermal Energy and CCS: From the Transformation to the Reconfiguration of a Socio-Technical Regime?, Energy Procedia, Volume 114, July 2017, Pages 7528-7539
Geels, F. W. (2002). Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research policy, 31(8), 1257-1274.
Geels, F. W. (2005). Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective. Technological forecasting and social change, 72(6), 681-696.
Geels, F.W., Raven, R. (2006), Non-linearity and Expectations in Niche-Development Trajectories: Ups and Downs in Dutch Biogas Development (1973–2003), Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, Volume. 18(3–4), pp.375-392.
Geels, F. W., & Schot, J. (2007). Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Research policy, 36(3), 399-417.
Geels, F.W., & Verbong,G.P.J. (2010). Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways. Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 77, Issue 8, October 2010, Pages 1214-1221.
Geels, F.W., Kern, F., Fuchs, G., Hinderer, N., Kungl, G. (2016), The enactment of socio- technical transition pathways: A reformulated typology and a comparative multi- level analysis of the German and UK low- carbon electricity transitions (1990- 2014), Research Policy, Vol. 45, pp. 896-913.
Geels, F. W. (2017). Disruption and low-carbon system transformation: Progress and new challenges in socio-technical transitions research and the Multi-Level Perspective. Energy Research & Social Science Journal. Volume 37, March 2018, Pages 224-231.
Geels, F.W., McMeekin, A., Pfluger,B. (2018).  Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity generation (2010–2050), Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Volume 151, February 2018, 119258.
Geels, F. W. (2019). Socio-technical transitions to sustainability: a review of criticisms and elaborations of the Multi-Level Perspective. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Journal. Volume 39, August 2019, Pages 187-201.
Geels, F. W. (2020). Micro-foundations of the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions: Developing a multi-dimensional model of agency through crossovers between social constructivism, evolutionary economics and neoinstitutional theory. Technological Forecasting & Social Change Journal. Volume 152, March 2020, 119894.
Hoekstra, A., Steinbuch, M., and Verbong, G. (2017). Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation.Hindawi, Complexity, Volume 2017, Article ID 1967645, 23 pages.
Hof, A. F., Carrara, S., De Cian, Enrica., P, Benjamin., S, Mariësse A.E.van., Sytzede., B, Harmen., P.van, Vuuren, D., (2020). From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 151, February 2020, 119882.
HUSSAINI, M. (2015). TRANSITION PATHWAYS TO SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: THE UK EXPERIENCE. Phd Thesis, School of Computing, Science and Engineering, College of Science and Technology, University of Salford, Salford, UK September 2015.
Jano-Ito,M. A.,& Crawford-Brown, D. (2016). Socio-technical analysis of the electricity sector of Mexico: Its historical evolution and implications for a transition towards low-carbon development .Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 55, March 2016, Pages 567-590.
Kanger, L., (2021).  Rethinking the Multi-level Perspective for energy transitions: From regime life-cycle to explanatory typology of transition pathways. Energy Research & Social Science, 71 (2021) 101829
Kemp, L. M., Vernay, A-L., Ravesteijn, W.(2010). EXPLORING ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS: insights from Denmark and Sweden. ERSCP-EMSU conference (  Knowledge Collaboration & Learning for Sustainable Innovation), Delft, The Netherlands, October 25-29, 2010.

Lawhon, M., Murphy, J. T. (2011).Socio-technical regimes and sustainability transitions: Insights from political ecology. Progress in Human Geography.  Volume: 36 issue: 3, page(s): 354-378

Loorbach, D. & Rotmans, J., (2010), “The practice of Transition management: Examples and lessons from for distict cases”, Futures 42, pp 237- 246.
Marletto, G. (2014). Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 87, September 2014, Pages 164-178

Marletto, G. (2019). Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicle. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139, February 2019, Pages 221-234.

Mohaghar, A., Saghafi, F., Mokhtarzadeh, N., Azadegan Mehr,M. (2019). Anticipating Technological Transition Path in Iran's Financial Sector Based on MultiLevel Perspective. Journal of Science & Technology Policy, Volume 11, Number 4, P 76-98. Winter 2020 [1] Rotmans, J., Kemp, R., & Van Asselt, M. (2001). More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. foresight, 3(1), 15-31.
Mora, L., Deakin, M., Zhang, X., Batty, M., Jong, M. de., Santi, Pa., Paolo Appio, F. (2020). Assembling Sustainable Smart City Transitions: An Interdisciplinary Theoretical Perspective, Journal of Urban Technology (IF5.465),  Pub Date : 2020-12-04.
Mosavi Dorcheh, S.M., Ghanei Rad, M.A., Karimian Khouzani, H., & Shahmoradi, B. (2018), Presenting a Framework for Describing the Technological Transitions Based on the Multilevel Analysis Approach (Case Study: The Transition to Renewable Energy in Iran). Innovation Management Journal. Volume 6, Issue 4 - Serial Number 22. March 2018, Pages 63-98.
Mosavi Dorcheh, S.M., Ghanei Rad, M.A., Karimian, H., Zonouzizadeh, H., & Bagheri Moghaddam, N. (2018), Presenting a Framework for Describing the Technological Transitions Base on the Multilevel Analysis Approach (Case Study: The Transition to Renewable Energy in Iran). Journal of Improvement Management.Vol. 12 No. 2, summer 2018 (Serial 40), Pages 141-171.
Raven,R., Walrave,B. (2020). Overcoming transformational failures through policy mixes in the dynamics of technological innovation systems. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 153, April 2020, 119297.

Robertson,F., PaulCairney,M. (2020). A systematic review of energy systems: The role of policymaking in sustainable transitions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 119, March 2020, 109598.

Shove, E.,  Walker, G. (2010). Governing Transitions in the Sustainability of Everyday Life. Research Policy 39(4):471-476.

Smith, A., Stirling, A., Berkhout,F. (2005). The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions. Research Policy. Volume 34, Issue 10, December 2005, Pages 1491-1510

Verbong, G. P. J., Geels, F. W. (2008). Pathways for sustainability transitions in the electricity sector: Multi-level analysis and empirical illustration, First International Conference on Infrastructure Systems and Services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA).

Walrave, B., & Raven, R. (2016). Modelling the dynamics of technological innovation systems , Research Policy, Volume 45, Issue 9, November 2016, Pages 1833-1844.

Wells, P., Lin, X. (2015). Spontaneous emergence versus technology management in sustainable mobility transitions: Electric bicycles in China  .Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 78, August 2015, Pages 371-383
Wilkinson,S., Davidson,M., M.Morrison, G .(2020). Historical transitions of Western Australia’s electricity system, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Volume 34, March 2020, Pages 151-164.