Firm Future Readiness: Concept Presentation and Composite Index

Document Type : Original Article


1 Researcher of Research Institute for Technology Studies,Tehran

2 Allameh Tabatabaei University

3 University of Tehran

4 Member of Tehran Research Institute for Science Policy of Iran


Companies are the motor of growth and development in all countries and they have special importance in all planning and policy making activities. Every decision in almost all companies is based on knowledge and future information of managers and experts inside the company who often makes their decisions based on looking to the future. Today, in an increasingly changing world, there are more necessary to focus on the future and identify future events and occurrences and managers and experts in a company should, having a good knowledge on these changes, increase their readiness for encountering to them and avoid from “strategic surprises”. In this research, tried to introduce a new concept in the field of futures studies i.e. “Company Future Readiness” in a composite indicator, so that companies using that can evaluate and promote their future readiness in encountering to future and its changes. For this, methodology of developing composite indicators was used and basic conceptual framework was developed based on literature review. Then by a survey on large knowledge based companies, data was gathered so that the basic framework was analyzed by using factor analysis method. By doing this research, a company future readiness composite indicator was developed which consists of 17 variables and 120 questions.


Aiello, F., & Attanasio, M. 2006. Some issues in constructing composite indicators. In VIII international meeting on quantitative methods for applied sciences, Certosa di Pontignano. pp. 11-13.
Akgün, A. E., & Keskin, H. 2014. Organisational resilience capacity and firm product innovativeness and performance. International Journal of Production Research, 52(23), pp. 6918-6937.
Ansoff, H. I. 1975. Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California management review, 18(2), pp. 21-33.
Ansoff, H. I.1980. Strategic issue management. Strategic management journal, 1(2), pp.131-148.‏
Battistella, C. & De Toni, A.F., 2010. The organization for corporate foresight: a multiple case study in the telecommunication industry, POMS 21st Annual Conferences, Canada.
Taylor, A., Wagner, K., & Zablit, H. 2013., The Most Adaptive Companies 2012; Winning in an Age of Turbulence, The Boston Consulting Group.
Bhamra, R., Dani, S., & Burnard, K. 2011. Resilience: the concept, a literature review and future directions. International Journal of Production Research, 49(18), pp.5375-5393.
Gibson, C., & Birkinshaw, J. 2004. Building Ambidexterity into an Organization Topic: Leadership and Organizational Studies. Reprint 45408, (4), pp. 47-55.‏
Calantone, R. J., Cavusgil, S. T., & Zhao, Y. 2002. Learning orientation, firm innovation capability, and firm performance. Industrial marketing management, 31(6), 515-524.Cefis, E., & Marsili, O. 2006. Survivor: The role of innovation in firms’ survival. Research Policy, 35(5), pp. 626-641.
Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute, 2003, Utrecht School of Economics, Utrecht University.
Chakravarthy, B. S.1982. Adaptation: A promising metaphor for strategic management. Academy of management review, 7(1), pp. 35-44.
Cornish, E. 2003. The wild cards in our future. The Futurist, 37(4), p.18.
Demmer, W. A., Vickery, S. K., & Calantone, R. 2011. Engendering resilience in small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): a case study of Demmer Corporation. International journal of production research, 49(18), pp. 5395-5413.
Durand, R. 2003. Predicting a firm›s forecasting ability: The roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention. Strategic Management Journal, 24(9), pp. 821-838.
Erol, O., Henry, D., Sauser, B., & Mansouri, M. 2010. Perspectives on measuring enterprise resilience. In Systems Conference, 2010 4th Annual IEEE (pp. 587-592). IEEE.‏
Eunni, R.V.2004. Strategic adaptation in a rapidly changing industry: An empirical study of the telecommunications equipment industry in the United States (1990-1999). Thesis, Boston University.
Evans, J. S. 1991. Strategic flexibility for high technology manoeuvres: a conceptual framework. Journal of management studies, 28(1), pp.69-89.
Floridi, M., Pagni, S., Falorni, S., & Luzzati, T. 2011.An exercise in composite indicators construction: Assessing the sustainability of Italian regions. Ecological economics, 70(8), pp.1440-1447.‏
Gibson, C. B., & Birkinshaw, J. 2004.The antecedents, consequences, and mediating role of organizational ambidexterity. Academy of management Journal, 47(2), pp.209-226.‏
Grim, T. 2009. Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving best practices in the foresight field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), pp.69-80.‏
He, Z. L., & Wong, P. K. 2004. Exploration vs. exploitation: An empirical test of the ambidexterity hypothesis. Organization science, 15(4), pp.481-494.
Hiltunen, E. 2008.The future sign and its three dimensions. Futures, 40(3), pp.247-260.‏
Hiltunen, E.2006. Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(2), pp.61-74.‏
Jansen, J. 2005. Ambidextrous organizations: a multiple-level study of absorptive capacity, exploratory and exploitative innovation and performance, Journal of Southern African Studies.
Kline, P., 2001. An easy guide to factor analysis. Translated By: Sadrolsadat, S. J. & Minaei, A., Tehran: The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities (SAMT).‏
Kuosa, T. 2010. Futures signals sense-making framework (FSSF): A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of information. Futures, 42(1), pp.42-48.‏
Lin, C. T., Chiu, H., & Tseng, Y. H.2006. Agility evaluation using fuzzy logic. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(2), pp.353-368.‏
Mendonça, S., e Cunha, M. P., Kaivo-oja, J., & Ruff, F.2004.Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures, 36(2), pp.201-218.‏
Murias, P., de Miguel, J. C., & Rodríguez, D.2008.A composite indicator for university quality assesment: The case of Spanish higher education system. Social Indicators Research, 89(1), pp.129-146.‏
Nardo, M., Saisana, M., Saltelli, A., & Tarantola, S. 2005. Tools for Composite Indicator Building, Ispra: Joint Research Centre, EU Commission.‏
OECD, Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and user Guide, 2008.
O’Reilly, C. A., & Tushman, M.L. 2011. Organizational ambidexterity in action: How managers explore and exploit. California Management Review, 53(4), pp.5-22.‏
Atilla Öner, M., & Göl Beşer, S. 2011.Assessment of corporate foresight project results: case of a multinational company in Turkey. Foresight, 13(2), pp.49-63.‏
Paliokaitė, A., & Pačėsa, N.2015.The relationship between organisational foresight and organisational ambidexterity. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, pp.165-181.‏
Petersen, J. L.1999.Out of the blue: How to anticipate big future surprises. National Book Network.‏
Reeves, M., & Deimler, M. 2011. Adaptability: The new competitive advantage. Harvard Business Review.‏
Reger, G.2001. Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 13(4), pp.533-553.‏
Rockfellow, J. D.1994. Wild cards: Preparing for the big one›. The Futurist, 28(1), p.14.‏
Rohrbeck, Rene, 2011, Corporate Foresight; Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, PhD Dissertation.
Sanchez, R., 1995. Strategic flexibility in product competition. Strategic management journal, 16(S1), pp.135-159.‏
Tuominen, M., Rajala, A., & Möller, K.2004.How does adaptability drive firm innovativeness?. Journal of Business Research, 57(5), pp.495-506.‏
Heiko, A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I. L.2010.Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), pp.380-393.‏
Zhang, Z., & Sharifi, H.2000.A methodology for achieving agility in manufacturing organisations. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 20(4), pp.496-513.‏