5G penetration rate forecast in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Iran Telecommunication Research Center, Iran (ITRC).

2 Iran Telecommunication Research Center, Iran.

3 Expert of Communications Regulatory Authority (CRA), Iran.

Abstract

In this paper, various analytical methods of 5G technology penetration rate is investigated and then 5G penetration rate is calculated for Iran based on Pareto method. The 5G technology penetration rate is important to predict the time and the way to migrate to the 5G network. It is assumed that the 5G technology penetration rate in the first year of the launch based on the Pareto method depends on the 4G penetration rate in the same year. The 5G technology penetration rate in Iran in the first year of the launch is predicted to be about 0.95% based on the Pareto method. The number of 5G unique subscribers in the years after the launch is also forecasted from the number of 4G technology unique subscribers which is predicated by the Gompertz method. The best time for the widespread investment of the operator in the 5G is 2025. It is also estimated that the best time to replace 5G technology with 4G is 2029.

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Main Subjects

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 12 December 2018
  • Revise Date: 27 April 2019
  • Accept Date: 04 May 2019

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